Reviewing CSI’S Snapshot of Fort Collins’ Demographic Future

Ryan Schaefer, CEO of NAI Affinity & Affinity Partners, LLC

NAI Affinity is an investor in the Common Sense Institute (“CSI”) because we believe it is vitally important for Colorado to have a non-partisan think-tank to study the key issues facing our state, in order to provide the objective data necessary for our citizens, leaders, and policymakers to make informed decisions.  As a grateful supporter of CSI’s work, I recently reviewed its November 12, 2025 report titled “A Snapshot of Fort Collins’ Demographic Future.”  I wish to offer my thoughts on the reports findings, key facts it shares, and some of the context behind these facts.

Click here for full CSI A Snapshot of Fort Collins’ Demographic Future report

The information contained within CSI’s report could have also led to it being titled “A Snapshot of the Colorado Front Range’s Demographic Future”, as Fort Collins’ demographic trends are consistent with those of many other Front Range communities.  It could have also been titled “A Snapshot of Weld County’s Demographic Future”, as the report correctly points out the growth trend that many of us in Northern Colorado have been forecasting and observing over many years: Weld County is growing faster than Larimer County and will overtake Larimer County in population in 2026, due to higher birth rates and higher net migration rates.  Another possible direction the report could have taken would be to highlight the supply boom and impending supply cliff that Denver’s “Expanding Housing Affordability” or “EHA” ordinance has caused (note – CSI addressed this in September 2024 but, a post-mortem report now or in the coming years is also warranted).

As someone who has spent decades working in real estate in Northern Colorado, the real underlying story is that Weld County is the outlier amongst Colorado’s Front Range (really all of Colorado, with the exception of Grand Junction on a smaller scale).  Weld County has a higher birth rate and more net migration, leading to more new household formation than Larimer County.  Such population growth causes greater demand for goods and services, which bodes well in many respects for Weld County.

You will note that I am using the names of Larimer and Weld Counties as Fort Collins is only a part of the Fort Collins Metropolitan Statistical Area (which is synonymous with Larimer County).  The same is true of Greeley and the Greeley MSA (i.e. Weld County).

To my trained-eye, the data contained within the CSI report begs four key questions: (1) how much of the key findings in the report can be attributed to housing supply vs. demand; (2) how does the housing supply compare amongst geographical areas; (3) how much is price impacting demand for housing in these areas; and (4) are there external factors influencing supply, demand, and price?

Regarding the first question, the obvious must be stated.  Fort Collins, the largest city in Larimer County, is running out of land in its Growth Management Area (“GMA”).  Fort Collins, and Loveland too for that matter, can’t growth west – they are bordered by the foothills of the Rocky Mountains.  If its supply of land is limited, Fort Collins cannot be expected to keep pace with communities in Weld County which do not share the same geographic limitations.

Isn’t is also true that Fort Collins’ Land Use Code, development review system, and costs of doing business (e.g. impact fees and water tap and dedication costs within the City and special water and sanitation districts) negatively impact supply?  Yes, these are compounding factors on top of a limited supply of land for development.

Just as regulation (what I’m calling an “externality”) in Fort Collins plays a role in the supply of housing, the same can be true when looking at rents in the Denver Metro Area.  In 2022, Denver passed an inclusionary housing ordinance under the name “Expanding Housing Affordability” or “EHA.”  EHA has had a noteworthy impact on housing affordability in Denver since that time but, not in the way that it was intended.

In order to give the development community time to underwrite and implement the requirements contained within the EHA, there was a grace period before this new regulation took effect.  Developers rushed to permit new housing in advance of EHA taking effect, resulting in a record wave of supply of new apartments in Denver.  This dramatic increase in supply, at a time when net-migration into Denver slowed post-pandemic, has resulted in apartment owners dramatically discounting rents to the point where rents in Fort Collins slightly eclipsed that of Denver in 2025 (the first time I have observed this in my 27-year career).  I understand why CSI highlighted the relative rent levels in Fort Collins vs. Denver in its report.  It is an interesting fact.  Especially if you are focused on housing in Fort Collins.  However, this is likely to be a very temporary condition and has more to do with Denver than Fort Collins.

This condition is temporary as the current record housing supply in Denver, exacerbated by Denver’s EHA, is now resulting in a tiny fraction of new projects being submitted for development review in Denver.  So much so, that industry experts are forecasting the return of double-digit rent growth in Denver in the coming years, as the current supply is absorbed and developers flee Denver for suburban areas which lack such EHA regulation.

The take-away messages here are: (1) just because Fort Collins lacks land (and therefore supply of housing), we should be careful not to assume that people do not want to live there – this is a supply issue, much more than an insufficient demand story; (2) be careful when comparing temporary rent conditions arising from Denver’s EHA to Fort Collins’ current rent levels – this is an isolated moment in time brought about by an externality – this condition is unlikely to persist; and (3) Weld County has the land, the infrastructure, regulatory environment, and the political will to grow – it should be highlighted and complimented for its positive economic contributions to our state – and we should be asking ourselves what’s different about Weld County that is causing this.

Ryan Schaefer, CEO of NAI Affinity & Affinity Partners, LLC

November 23, 2025

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